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Prediction for CME (2024-08-09T21:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-09T21:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32663/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M4.5 flare peaking at 2024-08-09T21:23Z from AR 3774 (approx. S05W40). Eruption with rising/opening field lines and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 193, GOES 284, and STEREO A EUV 195. No clear CME arrival signatures in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-12T08:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32690/1
Model Inputs:
2024-08-09T21:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=31.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=887.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-08-10T01:40Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-12T08:51Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =24.0 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-13T01:44Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-11T13:42Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-12T00:37Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-13T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_014000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 34.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-08-10T22:12Z

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